automated:SPC MD 1878 MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE / SRN AL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE / SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 132146Z - 132315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THIS THREAT PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. DISCUSSION...21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PSUEDO MARITIME WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY DELINEATING THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR TO THE W /LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS E. THE KEVX VAD SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE CONTRIBUTING TO A CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPH. ALTHOUGH 1-6 KM AGL FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE COMPARED TO FARTHER W OVER SRN MS...THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR AND W OF THE MARITIME FRONT...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH TIME. AS OF 2120Z...AN APPARENT TORNADO WAS REMOTELY SENSED VIA THE KTLH RADAR OVER CALHOUN COUNTY FL. ALTHOUGH THIS SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS TIME OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WILL MONITOR TRENDS IF THIS THREAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SHORT TERM. A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY EARLY EVENING TO ADDRESS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31588846 32048717 31918610 31698548 30158488 29728496 30018556 30378670 30258824 31588846 Read more

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