automated:SPC MD 1837 MD 1837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 092041Z - 092245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEEPEN INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS BY ABOUT 00Z. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE 40 NE KICT WITH A COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING ACROSS NW OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO A 1007 MB CYCLONE 30 W KRTN. INITIAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. PRESENCE OF A SWLY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FOSTER ELONGATED/NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER/SHORT-LINE SEGMENT WITH BOWING STRUCTURES DURING MID/LATE-EVENING. ..GRAMS/HART.. 10/09/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37070476 37090365 36900278 36630195 36020115 35400094 34970104 34700136 34730241 35030327 35470421 35890465 36470500 36770513 37070476 Read more

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