automated:SPC MD 1826 MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN INDIANA AND WRN OHIO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN INDIANA AND WRN OHIO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 072025Z - 072230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED. DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN INDIANA AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS SAMPLE 40-60 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS/WNWLYS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- E.G. H5 TEMPS BETWEEN -21C AND -17C -- OVERLYING MODEST SFC HEATING INDUCED BY POCKETS OF INSOLATION BEHIND EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT CROSSED THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL -- I.E. MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEPICTED BY 1-KM-AGL PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER BUOYANCY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED. ..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39718661 41538577 41548408 40248447 39608557 39718661 Read more

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