automated:SPC MD 1814 MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX...LA...MS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA...MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 061431Z - 061630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30-35 KT. A WATCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. DISCUSSION...MATURE QLCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AT 30-35 KT. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN INTEGRITY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WILL TAKE IT TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING AND OFF THE GULF COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SABINE PASS AROUND NOON. CONVECTIVE CHARACTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY STEADY-STATE. RECENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...DO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DEMISE IN STORM INTENSITY WITH DOWNWARD TENDENCIES IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND REFLECTIVITY...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN COLD IR CLOUD-TOP TEMPS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD SOUTH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A MODESTLY AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT LIES ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KT...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN LINEAR CHARACTER AND DEVELOP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY...CURRENT SPEED AND CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT SUGGEST A VIABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. ..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29869043 29329157 29189386 29569491 29909556 31259563 31329546 31139476 31209334 31929279 32059256 31769102 31389039 29869043 Read more

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